Sharp handicappers’ best bets to win Masters
LV Review Journal SubscriptionWagering on the Masters is a tradition unlike any other for sharp golf bettors.
“This is the one tournament of the year where you can really get solid prices because they’re up so long,” Westgate SuperBook golf oddsmaker Jeff Sherman said.
With Masters odds on the board for 10 months, sharp handicappers are able to find value on multiple golfers at different points during the year.
Sherman bet on eight players to win a green jacket, including several at much better numbers than their current prices: Jon Rahm (12-1), Rory McIlroy (15-1), Xander Schauffele (25-1), Tony Finau (55-1), Brooks Koepka (80-1), Tom Kim (100-1), Jason Day (150-1) and Harold Varner III (300-1).
His best value play is on Day, a former PGA Championship winner who is 33-1 at Circa Sports after reeling off four straight top-10 finishes earlier this year.
“He’s been phenomenal to start this season,” Sherman said. “He’s been rock-solid consistent. He’s played as well as anyone.”
Wes Reynolds, co-host of VSiN’s “Long Shots” golf betting podcast, also played Day at 40-1 two weeks ago.
Reynolds has another common play with Sherman on Tony Finau, who’s down to 25-1 and is one of the largest liabilities at the SuperBook.
“Finau has been close many times in majors, with a top-five in all four majors and 10 top-10s in the 26 he’s played,” said Reynolds (@WesReynolds1). “The difference between those majors and this one is that Finau now has win equity and more confidence. He has won three times on the PGA Tour since playing his last major.”
At current odds, Sherman said some of the best value is on Sungjae Im, who is 40-1 at the Westgate. Reynolds also made Im one of his best bets.
“In 10 starts this year, Sungjae has recorded seven top-25s and three top-10s. He’s gaining strokes in each area this season and ranks sixth in the all-around ranking on the PGA Tour,” Reynolds said. “While he has largely struggled in the other majors, we can’t say the same about Augusta, where he finished second in his debut in 2020 and followed a missed cut in 2021 by returning last year to finish eighth.”
Here are Reynolds’ other best bets, with comments on each:
Jordan Spieth, 19-1
“Spieth has already had a couple looks at victory in 2023 with finishes of sixth in Phoenix, fourth at Bay Hill and third at Tampa.
“You could argue that he probably should have three green jackets already instead of just the one he earned in 2015.”
Justin Thomas, 25-1
“While Thomas has never been in the hunt on Sunday heading to Amen Corner, he has shown glimpses that he can be a Masters champion.
“He has led at the halfway mark (2020), defied a slow start to finish eighth (2022) and fought back for 12th (2019). JT also has Jim ‘Bones’ Mackay on the bag. ‘Bones’ won this thing three times with Phil Mickelson.”
Collin Morikawa, 33-1
“It is hard to believe that it has been almost 18 months since Morikawa has won anywhere. It looked like he was going to open 2023 with a victory before losing a nine-shot lead in the season opener at the Sentry Tournament of Champions.
“Meanwhile, Morikawa is back as one of the world’s best iron players.”
Hideki Matsuyama, 50-1
“The 2021 Masters champion is slowly coming into form with a fifth at The Players Championship and 15th at the Valero Texas Open last week.
“Seven of his eight PGA Tour wins have come on bentgrass greens. While a historically shaky putter, Matsuyama has gained with the flat stick in 10 of his last 12 events and is having the best putting season of his career.”
Min Woo Lee, 85-1
“Min Woo Lee is long off the tee and outstanding around the green, plus his approach play has improved markedly over the past 12 months.
“He proved he could compete with the game’s elite last month when he tied for sixth at The Players Championship.”
...holy shit is that Ray Floyd!!?
